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Wind Turbines MPAC v. Lansink Value Diminution – June 2014

Click here for Diminution in Price Wind Turbine Influence Full Report



Lansink Appraisals and Consulting













Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants – A Division of Wellington Realty Group Inc.

ben@lansink.ca 519-645-0750

  1. A Report by Ben Lansink titled

    Wind Turbines Melancthon Clear Creek MPAC
    Diminution in Price, Current Value

    February 15, 2013

  2. Comments by Michael McCann

    Michael McCann is a Chicago based appraiser who has been legally qualified numerous times as an
    expert witness on property value diminution resulting from industrial scale wind turbine projects in
    close proximity to residential property.

  3. MPAC Study Titled

    Impact of Industrial Wind Turbines on Residential Property Assessment
    In Ontario 2012 Assessment Base Year Study

    Dated April 26, 2014

  4. Technical Review by Wayne Gulden

    MPAC throws up, by my count, 7 objections to Lansink’s methodology; of which exactly zero actually
    indicate that Lansink’s numbers are wrong.

    Gulden 2014.

Report Date : June 2014

Table of contents


Hwy 89, Melancthon Township, Ontario

Hwy 89, Melancthon Township, Ontario, Canada
Photograph by Ben Lansink

Ben Lansink’s Study Melancthon Clear Creek 2013


Conclusion: Clear Creek, known as Frogmore-Cultus-Clear Creek, about 18 Wind
Turbines
1 1480 Lakeshore Road, Norfolk -44.17%
2 71 Norfolk County Road 23, Norfolk -55.18%
3 47 Concession Road A, Norfolk -22.47%
4 43 Old Mill Road, Norfolk -32.96%
5 1575 Lakeshore Road, Norfolk -27.67%
6 1527 Lakeshore Road, Norfolk -28.88%
7 1921 Lakeshore Road, Norfolk -38.48%
Median -32.96%
Average -35.69%
Low -22.47%
High -55.18%
Conclusion: Melancthon, 133 Wind Turbines
1 375557 6th Line, Amaranth -48.27%
2 97121 4th Line, Melancthon -58.56%
3 504059 Highway 89, Melancthon -23.24%
4 582340 County Road 17, Melancthon -26.66%
5 582328 County Road 17, Melancthon -37.30%
6
7
Median -32.96%
Average -35.69%
Low -22.47%
High -55.18%

None of the above properties considered in this report had a wind turbine erected on it. Registry facts
and MLS® listings (if available) for these properties were obtained and are on file.

The Melancthon properties and neighbourhood were inspected and photographed by Ben Lansink on September
20, 2012. The Clear Creek properties and neighbourhood were inspected and photographed by Ben Lansink on
October 9, 2012.

MPAC 2012 Base Year – Study 2014


The Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) commissioned this study of the effects of
industrial wind turbines (IWT) on the current value of property in proximity to the turbines. Over
the last few years, the subject of IWTs has been the subject of a number of reports and studies –
both in Canada and worldwide. Past and current studies undertaken by both academics as well as real
estate and health professionals have focused on the potential impacts of IWTs on property value and
health. Given MPAC’s legislated mandate, this report focuses on the potential impact of IWTs on
property values.

MPAC’s study concludes that 2012 Current Value Assessments (CVA) of properties located within
proximity to an IWT are assessed at their current value and are equitably assessed in relation to
homes at greater distances. No adjustments are required for 2012 CVAs. This finding is consistent
with MPAC’s 2008 CVA report. The 2012 CVA study also found that there is no statistically
significant impact on sale prices of residential properties in these market areas resulting from
proximity to an IWT. The study underwent a rigorous independent third-party peer review and includes
appendices describing the study parameters and documenting the analyses.

To further confirm its findings, MPAC also conducted an additional analysis using approximately 2,000
sales and re-sales following similar logic to the Lansink study. The main differences between the
February 2013 Lansink Study and MPAC’s re-sale analysis is the sample size and the determination of
the increase in the market between re-sales. Using 2,051 properties and generally accepted time
adjustment techniques, MPAC cannot conclude any loss in price due to the proximity of an IWT.
Appendix G includes the re-sales analysis.

MPAC did find evidence that wind turbines cause property value declines; however, MPAC
seems to conclude that impacted properties are equitably assessed even in relation to homes at greater
distances.

Given the actual market evidence readily available that supports value diminution if a
residential property is within the influence of a Wind Turbine, the MPAC report is misleading to the
public and to political decision makers.

Notwithstanding that MPAC states:

MPAC’s study concludes that 2012 Current Value Assessments (CVA) of properties located within proximity
to an IWT are assessed at their current value and are equitably assessed in relation to homes at greater
distances. No adjustments are required for 2012 CVAs.

MPAC Study Data

MPAC may be correct in that properties located within a specific area, 1 km, 1km to 3km, 2km to 5km, and
outside 5km, are equitably assessed within each specific area, however MPAC’s work, 2012 Current Value
Assessments, and MPAC’s actual Time Adjusted Sale Prices, both clearly support about $171,000 average
assessment/price at setback of less than 1km and $228,000 average assessment/price at setback outside
5km.

This means typical value diminution is $57,000 if within 1km vs. 5km.

The MPAC study clearly concludes that properties situated within the influence of a Wind Turbine sell for
less than a property not located within the influence of a Wind Turbine.

Yet MPAC is saying diminution is not an issue if they assess each area the same.

The MPAC study concludes diminution in value ranging from 21.1% if the setback is 3 to 5 km, 26.3% if
the setback is 1 to 3 km, and 25.0% if the setback is less than 1 km.

MPAC study Impact

It is reasonable to assume MPAC could NOT have assessed all properties influenced by a Wind Turbine
equitably as of the value date January 1, 2012.

The most recent current valuations were carried out by MPAC in the 2010-11 period leading up to January
1, 2012 when there was virtually NO evidence of value diminution available to MPAC. Wind Turbines are a
NEW phenomenon in Ontario. The first turbines were constructed circa 2005-2008 in Melancthon. The MPAC
2012 Base Year study is dated 2014 which is long after the assessments for all properties in Ontario as
of the 2012 Base Year had been concluded.

However, with the passage of time, and with appeals to the Assessment Review Board, and as sale-resale
evidence is documented, it is assumed MPAC will read the market place and make adjustments resulting
from the influence of Wind Turbines.

The Future :Given that wind turbines are a relatively new phenomenon in
Ontario (since 2005), it may be that in the future a buyer will simply refuse to purchase a property
within the influence of a Wind Turbine. If there is no buyer, there may be no value.

Michael McCann E-Mail April 26, 2014


Mr. McCann is a Certified Real Estate Appraiser. He has 30 years of specialized experience in evaluating
property damage claims. Since 2005, Mr. McCann has studied the impact of industrial wind farms on nearby
property values, testifying as a qualified expert witness as to his findings in the market. Mr. McCann
has stated:

I have discussed Mr. Lansink’s study with him and have carefully reviewed his report. I concur with
his valuation findings, and the reliable nature of the evidentiary value of the resale data in
question


On balance, Mr. Lansink’s study is based on the most reliable type of data, since the buyers each
had to grant back to the seller/developer an Easement in Gross, allowing the very types of noise,
vibration and flicker effect impacts which are commonly experienced and reported near wind turbines,
and they were sold by the wind developer for 39% lower on average than the no-turbine market value.


My independent review of the literature on this subject has been fairly exhaustive, and the credible
studies researched by professionals who honor the requirement of no bias are all pretty consistent
with Mr. Lansink’s research, as well as my own findings. However, the studies commissioned by the
wind industry tend to conveniently overlook or disregard the most important nearby sale data, and
draw their conclusions from thousands of “pooled” sales from 5 – 10 miles away from turbine
projects.


Mr. Lansink’s study is far from the single example of impacts. Indeed, quite the opposite. Claims of
“no impact”, in my professional experience and opinion, are unreliable, misleading to the public and
to political decision makers.

From : Michael
McCann


Sent : Saturday, April 26, 2014 11:17 AM

To : Ben Lansink

Subject :

Ben,

See Wayne Gulden’s review of MPAC. Wayne is a retired engineer, a very sharp thinker with an
excellent
working knowledge of statistical analysis, and he writes well too.

His website is http://windfarmrealities.org/mpacs-2012-study
He has read your report too, and finds it
to be transparent and meaningful.

Clearly, MPAC had the goal of doing a hatchet job on your work, and their review is weak and
unprofessional at best. Given that their raw data supports the distance related impacts you and I
have
both found using paired sales and resale analyses, and they don’t even mildly allude to this glaring
inconsistency with their “impact” opinion, they are also misleading.

Wayne also has written reviews of Canning/Simmons, who did some rather loopy analysis for CanWEA,
and
Hoen’s 2009 LBNL report.

Wayne is spot on with all his remarks and insights into how those “studies” were conducted.

Let me know if I can be of any assistance, as a second set of eyes.

Regards,

Michael S. McCann

Wayne Gulden 2014 Technical Review MPAC’s 2014 Wind Turbine Report


Last week the Ontario Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) released the 2012 version of
their continuing study (following one in 2008) of wind turbines and property values in Ontario, entitled
Impact of Industrial Wind Turbines on Residential Property Assessment In Ontario. To sum it up, they
still find no evidence that wind turbines cause property value declines.

The study consists of a 31-page main section along with 12 appendices. MPAC seems to have their
own
language and it isn’t easily penetrated by a layman. I’ve read over it carefully several times and there
are still aspects of it that escape me. The appendices are generally beyond anyone who is not a
professional. On page 4 they state their goals for this version of the study:

Specifically, the study examined the following two statements:

  1. Determine if residential properties in close proximity to IWTs are assessed equitably in
    relation to residential properties located at a greater distance. In this report, this is
    referred to as Study 1 – Equity of Residential Assessments in Proximity to Industrial Wind
    Turbines.
  2. Determine if sale prices of residential properties are affected by the presence of an IWT in
    close proximity. In this report, this is referred to as Study 2 – Effect of Industrial Wind
    Turbines on Residential Sale Prices.

Their two main conclusions, on page 5, are:

Following MPAC’s review, it was concluded that 2012 CVAs of properties located within proximity of an
IWT are assessed at their current value and are equitably assessed in relation to homes at greater
distances. No adjustments are required for 2012 CVAs. This finding is consistent with MPAC’s 2008
CVA report.

MPAC’s findings also concluded that there is no statistically significant impact on sale prices of
residential properties in these market areas resulting from proximity to an IWT, when analyzing sale
prices.

Actually, there are three parts to this study, with the third contained in Appendix
G
. Early in 2013 one
Ben Lansink published a pretty solid study that showed property value
declines of anywhere from 22% to
59% and averaging about 37% on residential properties close (all within 1 km) to IWTs, which I
posted on

at the time. Apparently Lansink’s work was solid enough that MPAC felt obliged to attack it.

For me to critique all three parts would make for a very long posting, so I’m going to divide it up.
Obviously the details will follow in my subsequent postings, but for the impatient let me summarize
below.

Part 1, are MPAC’s evaluations close to IWTs as accurate (equitable, in their words) as
those further away?

This section is only of tangential interest to me, as the central question isn’t MPAC’s accuracy, but
rather the effect of IWTs on prices. It seems that, given MPAC’s explanations, their appraisals are
accurate. Still, there are some items in this part that are of interest. For example, it seems that
MPAC has been playing games to get the appraisals to agree with the market while hiding the effect
of wind turbines. They studied turbines 1.5mw and larger, not older turbines and the areas in
Ontario where the impact has already been felt.

Part 2, do IWTs have an effect on properties closer to them?

This section is of central interest. Unfortunately there are only 5 pages in Part 2, leaving lots of
details missing. Things like the sales prices within the close-in areas. MPAC’s major tool for doing
mass appraisals (4.7 million in Ontario) is multiple regression analysis and we’ve had lots
ofexperience
with how that can be manipulated to obtain the answer
your
sponsor wants. Instead of
providing us the prices and letting us judge for ourselves what any effects might be, they opaquely
run those prices through their regressions and voila! claim there’s nothing to see here!

But whoever wrote Part 2 must not have been talking to whoever wrote Part 1. On page 18, well within
part 1, there’s Figure 2. It’s purpose there is to show how close the appraisals are to the sales
data (the paired blue and green bars) for the different distances from the IWTs.

MPAC’s sales data

Note the blindingly obvious. Prices (and appraisals) within 5 km of IWTs are substantially lower than
those further away. I’ve added the horizontal lines so we can better determine the values, which are
noted to the side. Michael McCann, among others, has done a number of studies on IWTs and prices,
and his overall conclusion is a decline of 25-40%, with
almost 100% in
some cases. Does anyone want
to calculate the decline from 228,000 to 171,000? Perhaps the disparity is due to something as
simple as the spread between rural and urban properties, but don’t you think MPAC would at least
mention something? Nope. Nada.

Part 3, what are the problems with Lansink’s study?

Appendix
G
is more or less readable and provides an excellent example
of
what David Michaels book, Doubt is Their Product, talks about. MPAC throws up, by my count, 7
objections to Lansink’s methodology; of which exactly zero actually indicate that Lansink’s numbers
are wrong. Sewing confusion seems to be the most logical explanation. As an example, objection #4 of
the 7 is that for some of the pre-IWT prices Lansink used, gasp!, MPAC’s own appraisals. Perhaps
whoever wrote Appendix G didn’t bother reading the conclusions in Part 1.

There’s more details, of course, in the following postings.

Critique of Part 1

Part 1 of MPAC’s 2012 study asks if MPAC has as equitably assessed properties close to IWTs as
properties further away. This part, although of only tangential interest to wind opponents like
myself,
occupies the central part of the entire study. We think the larger question is: do IWTs reduce
property
values, not whether MPAC is clever and honest enough to correctly recognize those reductions.

MPAC is in the business of mass assessments, nearly 5 million in Ontario. Given this volume they
have no
choice but to use computers and computer-friendly techniques to do their assessments. That
translates to
a significant reliance on multiple regression analysis. They determine what sorts of characteristics
influence the selling prices and then use the computers to find out how much influence each
characteristic has. In their experience, 85% of the selling price can be calculated using 5
characteristics, or variables: location, building area, construction quality, lot size and age of
the
home adjusted for renovations and additions. Note that distance to a wind turbine is not one of
their
characteristics and MPAC seems determined to keep it so. But also note that location could be used
in
lieu of distance – more on this later.

MPAC uses the ASR, Assessment-to-Sales Ratio, to determine if their assessments are accurate. It is
simply the assessment divided by selling price, with a ratio of 1.0 being a perfect match. MPAC
expects
ratios between 0.95 and 1.05, and presents what seems to be an endless series of charts
demonstrating
this, primarily in the appendices. While obviously MPAC (actually everyone) has an interest in
accuracy
their emphasis on it seems misplaced in a study entitled Impact of
Industrial
Wind Turbines on Residential Property Assessment In Ontario, which to me and most residents is
quite
a different question.

Just think of the ramifications if MPAC decided to include distance from an IWT in their
regressions. I
have little doubt it would make Ontario’s lawyers very happy. It would also put Ontario’s
very-pro-IWT
ruling party in a difficult political spot. And don’t forget that the board of MPAC is appointed by
the
Minister of Finance, who is a member of the ruling party’s cabinet.

Upstream I mentioned that MPAC could use the location variables that already exist in their
regressions
to finesse their way out of this problem. I point to Wolfe Island as an example of how this might
work.
The western half of WI is now home to 86 IWTs, a project that had been in development since roughly
2000. If this half constitutes a “neighborhood” then MPAC could reduce the values in that
neighborhood
in a uniform manner and never have to recognize the elephant in the room.

As it happens, I posted on
MPAC’s actions
on Wolfe Island about 18 months ago. In the 7 years when the wind
project
went from being
developed to operational, the roughly 700 properties on Wolfe received the following number and
average
reductions:

  • 2005/06: 130, 9.3%
  • 2006/07: 33, 15.2%
  • 2007/08: 12, 28.8%
  • 2008/09: 34, 12.4%
  • 2009/10: 44, 29.0%
  • 2010/11: 22, 30.0%
  • 2011/12: 27, 24.0%

That’s a total of 302 reductions, which seems like a rather large percentage of the properties
there.

A Wolfe Island couple, the Kenney’s, asked for a reduction which they say MPAC was willing to grant,
although MPAC wouldn’t let IWTs be used as the reason. It ended up in court, and a local paper had a
reasonably good account of it. Perhaps MPAC’s reluctance to admit the obvious is that once they
admit it
they must then include distance in their regressions and doing that (and the legal and political
repercussions) is just too unpleasant. So they limp along, using the location instead.

Their favored overall chain of logic seems to be: since the ratios in neighborhoods close to IWTs
aren’t
much different from those further away, and since those ratios indicate their assessments are
accurate,
and since MPAC doesn’t include distance to an IWT in their regressions, ergo distance from an IWT
isn’t
a factor in reducing values. Part 1 of this study is a necessary part of this chain. So the real
main
purpose of this part of the study (and the study as a whole) seems to be to publicize MPAC’s skills
at
keeping the assessments in line with reality, and at the same time deflect how MPAC is going about
doing
this. MPAC is, after all, in a tight spot. The reality is that home prices take a dive when close to
IWTs. MPAC somehow has to lower the assessments around IWTs to keep the ASRs in line while keeping
their
bosses happy

Critique of Part 2

I fear that this part will be a difficult one for most people to follow, not to mention being
lengthy. Feel free to skip it. But I think it is important to document what this Study contains, and
MPAC made no effort to make understanding it easier. I recommend you print out Study 2′s 5 pages (pdf pages 26 to 30) and have them at hand
as you read
this.

The purpose of Study 2 is to study the effect of proximity to industrial wind turbines on
residential sale prices
. In summary, Study 2 finds that
With the exceptions noted above, no distance variables entered any regression equations for any
of the other market areas
. Say What?

It seems that people who are in the business of estimating real estate prices tend to fall into one
of two camps. First are those who make their living providing services to the people who actually
own the properties, with real estate brokers being the most obvious examples. These people tend to
focus on one property at a time and generally use comps or repeat sales to obtain their estimates.
Second are those who make their living providing services to people who don’t actually own the
property. Academics and mass appraisers (like MPAC) are the most obvious examples. These people tend
to focus on many properties at a time and generally use statistical techniques like multiple
regression analysis to obtain their estimates. The second class tends to think in terms of rejecting
the null hypothesis – you assume there is no difference between two sets (in this case close-in
prices and far-away prices) unless you have “statistical significance”. As a snarky aside, getting
to statistical significance in real estate can be quite a challenge, given the wide variance among
prices, and can be even more difficult when your sponsor/boss doesn’t want you to do so.

So of course MPAC used their main tool, regression equations that run multiple regression analyses.
They created three new variables based on distance from an IWT and entered these into regression
equations to see if the new variables were statistically significant. If they aren’t statistically
significant they don’t “enter” into the regression equations. As for the exceptions (which we’ll get
to shortly), out of 30 possibly significant variables, only 4 were significant and 3 of them were
positive! Whew

So right off the bat MPAC is using a tool that doesn’t provide the answers the actual owners of
potentially affected properties really care about. A binary statistical significance indicator does
not provide an answer to the “how much” and “how likely” questions a homeowner is going to have. In
this case, MPAC has skipped through the study so opaquely that I can’t even have much confidence in
my critique. There’s just too many omissions, too many unexplained leaps, too many dangling
statements.

There are just 5 pages in Study 2. The first of these (page 25 of the
study) lists the three new distance variables and sets their criteria for statistical significance
at either 5% or 10%. For those unfamiliar with that concept, the significance is a measure of the
odds two populations are in fact just randomly part of the same larger population.

In this case, a 5% significance means that there is only a 5% chance that the prices of the close-in
homes are the same as the far-away home prices. In other words, there’s a 95% chance that the
close-in prices are different from the far-away prices. What if there’s only an 80% chance your home
value will drop? Not significant, from MPAC’s perspective.

The second page (page 26) is dominated by Table 9. For MPAC’s purposes
Ontario is divided into 130
“market areas”. These areas presumably have some common basis that allows them to be treated as a
unit for their regression equations. Unfortunately I couldn’t find where the areas were or how many
homes were in each. Of the 130 MPAC found 15 that had large enough turbines in them to be of
interest. These 15 are listed in Table 9, along with the numbers of sales within each of the 3
distance variables for both pre-construction and post-construction. MPAC didn’t bother adding them
up either horizontally or in total, but I did. The numbers inside the grid add up to 3136, which
would be the total sales within 5 km in all the areas. But if you add up their numbers along the
bottom you come up with 3143. It turns out that their 142 should be 139 and their 1584 should be
1580. Now this isn’t much of an error, except that any pre-teen with a spreadsheet and 10 minutes
wouldn’t have made it.

At the bottom of page 26 they introduce pre-construction and post-construction periods, and that
only two of the 15 have enough sales to test both distances and periods. Most of the remaining 13
have “sufficient sales within 1 KM to test the value impact within that distance”. Also that the
“sales period to develop valuation ranges from December 2008 to December 2011″. And that Table 10
provides a summary.

The third page (page 27) is dominated by Table 10. It lists the remaining
10 market areas that
presumably have “sufficient sales within 1 KM to test the value impact within that distance”. 2 of
these have enough sales to test both distance and periods while the other 8 have enough sales to
test just the distance. For each of the 10 areas MPAC list square footage etc and median adjusted
prices. Are these the prices for the entire area or just within 1 km? MPAC doesn’t say. What is the
criterion for “sufficient”? MPAC doesn’t say. Nor does MPAC include what should obviously be
included – both tables. I suspect they are for the entire area, in which case they are useless for
our purposes, at least without the close-in comparison.

Presuming the criteria for inclusion into Table 10 is the 1 km test mentioned on page 26, one has to
wonder how 26RR010 and 31RR010 got into it, as Table 9 shows they had zero sales within 1 km. Snark
alert – maybe the missing 7 sales from Table 9 took place in these areas? And if 1 km isn’t the
criterion, what is? MPAC never says.

At the bottom of page 27 they mention that some sales at the 5 km distance were in urban as opposed
to rural market areas and thus were eliminated. They don’t say how many, nor what their effects on
the regressions might be. They also reiterate their statistical significance levels.

On the fourth page (page 28) they present two more tables, 11 and 12.
Table 11 lists the 8 market
areas that had sufficient sales (within 1 km?) to test the distance variables while Table 12 lists
the 2 market areas that had sufficient sales to test both distance and periods. These tables made
absolutely no sense to me until I noticed Appendix F.

For all 10 areas they entered the 3 distances and ran their regressions. In Appendix F they list all
the “excluded” variables, in this case all the distance-related variables that didn’t get to
statistical significance. They apparently are called “excluded” since, being “insignificant” they
don’t enter into MPAC’s final pricing calculations. If you look at the “sig” column you will not see
any value less than .100, or the 10% significance level MPAC mentioned on pages 25 and 27. I assume
by omission (and that’s all I can do here) that any of the 3 distance variables that are NOT listed
in Appendix F are in fact significant.

On my first pass through Appendix F I came up with 6 omitted, and thus assumed significant,
variables. Two of the omissions were for zero sales, for areas that shouldn’t even be there by the
<1 km criterion. But, maybe the <-1 km variable was never even entered on the exclusion
listing in Appendix F, so maybe I had erroneously assumed it was not excluded when in fact it didn’t
exist in the first place. So maybe the criterion for inclusion in Table 10 wasn’t significant sales
less than 1 km, but rather significant sales less than 5 km out. Just a typo, right? At least Table
11 now is consistent with Tables 9 and 10.

Finally! Out of the 30 tests (10 areas times 3 tests) I count 4 that are significant. Those 4 make
up the “non-DNE” entries in Tables 11. MPAC provided absolutely no guidance or explanation about any
of this, apparently writing for a very small audience.

I can only guess that the dollar amounts in Tables 11 and 12 are the effects of being in those areas
upon the prices. So, in the Kingston area (05RR030), if you live within 1 km of an IWT, you can
expect the value of your home to increase by $36,435! Very impressive – 5 digit accuracy, especially
with a sample size of 7.

Finally, thank goodness, we come to the fifth page (page 29). It is the
Summary of Findings and
contains more words than the rest of the Study put together. This section mostly lists the
significant variables and adds some fairly cryptic commentary.

Some Commentary

As I read through and dissected this Study I couldn’t escape the sense that MPAC didn’t want to put
much effort into it. Any narrative or explanations or even public-friendly conclusions are absent.
The tables that are included are ok, once you take the time to figure them out, but what about all
the stuff they should have included but didn’t? Things like the median prices in the areas
represented by the 30 variables. Or an Appendix F1 that shows the included variables, allowing us to
see the t-scores etc for ourselves. Etc., etc.

These missing items cause this Study to be terribly opaque. I hope my explanation above is accurate,
but I can’t be sure due to all the missing items. Maybe the Study reaches valid conclusions, but I
sure can’t verify that. Perhaps MPAC thinks we should just trust them to be an honest pursuer of the
truth. Sorry, that no longer flies, if it ever did. You have to wonder, is there some reason other
than laziness or stinginess that this Study seems so empty? In addition to the opacity the Study
includes several cryptic items that MPAC never explains. For example, from the summary, what do
these sentences actually mean?


Upon review of the sales database, it was determined that the IWT variables created for this study
were highly correlated with the neighbourhood locational identifier. This strong correlation
resulted in coefficients that did not make appraisal sense, and thus have been negated for the
purposes of this study.

If you look at the excluded variables in Appendix F you notice that most of them are named “NBxxxx”.
Probably those are neighborhood identifiers the somehow overlay the market areas. MPAC never
mentions how many there are or what the criteria are for forming one. But pretty obviously the areas
around an IWT could easily coincide with their neighborhoods. So what gets negated? Some of the
coefficients? All of them? MPAC provides no further information.

As an aside, I found it interesting to scan over the other excluded variables to see what sorts of
things MPAC puts into their regressions. Many of them make no sense and they seem to vary greatly
from market to market. I can’t help but think of a bunch of regression-heads sitting at their desks
hurriedly making up variables and desperately running regressions in an effort to get the ASRs
closer to one (ASRs are covered in Study 1).

I’ll leave (thankfully, believe me) this Study behind with the final thought that it seems so
slapped together, so opaque, so disjointed that perhaps even MPAC themselves weren’t sure what
significance it holds. Unfortunately, the wind industry won’t care about any of that, and will use
this study to continue harming Ontario residents.

Critique of the Lansink hatchet job

Ben Lansink is a professional real estate appraiser based in Ontario. In February 2013 he published
a study of two areas (Melancthon and Clear Creek, Ontario)
where 12 homes all within 1 km of an IWT
were sold on the open market. He used previous sales and MPAC assessments to establish what the
prices were before the IWTs arrived and then compared that with the open market prices after they
went into operation. The declines were enormous, averaging above 30%. The following (thankfully
clickable) spreadsheet snapshot gives a good summary of his results.

Critique of the Lansink hatchet job

In quite a departure from MPAC’s style, Lansink lists every sale, every price, every time-related area
price increase rate and every source. Lansink establishes an initial price at some time before the IWTs
were installed, applies a local-area inflation rate over the period between the sales, and compares the
“should-have-been” price with what the actual sales prices was after the IWTs were installed. In all 12
cases the final price was lower than the initial price, leading to an actual loss on the property. When
the surrounding real estate price increases were factored in, the resulting adjusted losses are even
greater. The compulsive reader might notice that the numbers above vary slightly from Lansink’s. In
order to check his numbers I reran all his calculations in the above chart and there are some rounding
errors – like on the order of <$10. I posted
on Lansink’s study
when
it came out, along with a
second posting on a previous version of his study.

These numbers are pretty easy to understand, and for most actual property owners are a
hard-to-refute indication of what awaits us should we be unfortunate enough to own property
within 1 km of an IWT. It is powerful enough and inconvenient enough that MPAC felt the need to
single it out for a hatchet job, which is contained in the 7 pages of
Appendix G.
The first
couple of pages are introductory stuff. Starting in the middle of page 2 they start their
critique with, by my count, 7 issues with Lansink’s methodology. The 7 are:

  1. Lansink uses the local area MLS price index in calculating the inflation rate. MPAC points
    out, correctly I guess, that within the MLS local area there could be neighborhood variances
    that could differ from MLS’s area average. MPAC has lots of neighborhoods defined (see
    Appendix F for a sampling) and it would be more accurate to use them. While more discrete
    data is generally a good thing, I think most people are quite willing to accept the local
    area MLS price index as a reasonable proxy. Besides – how would Lansink obtain MPAC’s
    neighborhood data? He used the best that he had, and that best is no doubt good enough for
    everyone besides MPAC. As you increase the number of neighborhoods you necessarily decrease
    the number of homes in each, increasing the chances of distortion by a single transaction.
    Issue #5 below will mention this as a problem from the opposite direction. No doubt if
    Lansink would have used neighborhoods MPAC would be criticizing him for not using the more
    reliable area average. Additionally – how far apart could a neighborhood be from the local
    area average? Does MPAC provide any indication that this caused an error in Lansink’s
    conclusions? Of course not.
  2. Lansink used just two points to “develop a trend”. I have no idea what they are talking
    about. Lansink is not developing any trends. As with neighborhoods, MPAC has more discrete
    timing adjustments than what Lansink used. In theory, more discrete data might be more
    accurate. In practice, maybe not, due to outliers. A monthly MLS area average is good enough
    for, again, everybody but MPAC. Additionally – how far apart could their timeline be from
    the local area average? Does MPAC provide any indication that this caused an error in
    Lansink’s conclusions? Of course not.
  3. Two homes in Clear Creek have their initial and final sales 8 and 15 years apart and there
    was likely something changed in the interim, affecting the price. People are always doing
    things to change the value of their homes – does MPAC have any indication that something
    substantial changed in one of these properties? If not, this is simply idle speculation,
    designed to instill confusion. Does MPAC provide any indication that this caused an error in
    Lansink’s conclusions? Of course not.
  4. For the other 5 home in Clear Creek Lansink used MPAC’s 2008 evaluations as the initial
    price, and MPAC is complaining about that. MPAC is apparently unaware of how ironic this
    sounds. They just finished, in this very study, bragging about how close their ASR’s were to
    one. Does MPAC provide any indication that this caused an error in Lansink’s conclusions? Of
    course not.
  5. For the properties in Melancthon Lansink used the buyout prices from CHD (the wind project
    developer) as the initial prices. To confirm these prices were at least in the ballpark of
    local market prices he obtained a local per square foot average price and it compared
    favorably with the prices paid per square foot by CHD. Since there was only 4 samples in
    this part of his study, even one outlier becomes a possible source of distortion and this is
    one of MPAC’s “major concerns”. This seems an odd criticism, coming from someone who relied
    upon the data in Table 9, with its fair share of single-digit samples. Does MPAC provide any
    indication that this caused an error in Lansink’s conclusions? Of course not
  6. MPAC found one house with a basement and since footage in basements is treated differently
    from footage above ground, this would have changed the square footage price used by Lansink
    in his comparison with the local average. Since there are only 4 houses in this sample, it
    would have moved the average up. MPAC spends the bottom of page 2, all of page 3 and part of
    page 4 discussing basements and whether they are finished or not. Does MPAC provide any
    indication that this caused an error in Lansink’s conclusions? Of course not.
  7. I’ll quote issue #7 in its entirety so you can fully appreciate it. “One final issue with
    the sales used in the Lansink study was that the second sale price was consistently lower
    than the first sale price despite the fact the time frame being analyzed was one of
    inflation. The absence of variability in the study make them suspect.” Suspect? THESE ARE
    PUBLIC RECORDS. There’s nothing suspect about them. These are facts. They won’t change. If
    they don’t fit your narrative perhaps your narrative needs to change, eh? Does MPAC provide
    any indication that this caused an error in Lansink’s conclusions? Of course not.

These 7 issues are an excellent example of spreading confusion, hoping that some of it will
stick, saying whatever you can come up with to discredit an opponent. When you’re reduced to
spending over a page discussing basements it provides an idea of just how desperate you are.

The second part of MPAC’s critique involves them running their own study of resales to see how it
compares
with Lansink’s. They find 2051 re-sales that were part of this same study’s ASR calculations (in Study
1).

They use their more discrete time variables in place of Lansink’s MLS local area averages. They use
multiple
regression analysis because Paired sales methods and re-sale analysis methods are generally limited
to fee appraisal and often too tedious for mass appraisal work.
Their conclusion:
Using 2,051 properties and generally accepted time adjustment techniques, MPAC cannot conclude any
loss in price due to the proximity of an IWT.

In spite of the voluminous tables and examples, MPAC leaves some very basic questions unanswered. Like
where were these 2,051 properties located and how were they selected? There’s no mention of them in the
body of the 2012 study. Over what period were the resales captured? What were the prices of the close-in
re-sales vs the far-away re-sales? Lansink has documented 7 losing resales within 1 km – why does your
summary say zero?

MPAC has this habit of expecting us to be impressed with large amounts of data, without divulging where
it came from and what filters might have been employed. Same with throwing all these numbers into a
computer and expecting us to uncritically accept the output. In short, MPAC expects us to trust them to
be fully honest, fully competent and fully independent. I hate to be the bearer of bad news to the fine
folks at MPAC, but that trust is no longer automatic for increasing segments of Ontario’s population.
Lansink’s numbers are out in the open and are processed in a way that anyone can verify. Your numbers
suddenly appear and rely upon computers with undocumented processes that always support the agendas of
your bosses. Your methods may be satisfactory to some media, some politicians, some courts and all
trough-feeders, but please don’t be surprised that they are not satisfactory to those of us living in
the trenches.

End Wayne Gulden Report

Curriculum Vitae


Ben Lansink, AACI, P.App, MRICS, Real Estate Appraiser and Consultant

Telephone: (519) 645-0750 Email: ben@lansink.ca

Summary – 2014:
Ben Lansink is an experienced professional real estate appraiser and consultant. He has completed
assignments to assist in mortgage financing, power of sale, deemed dispositions, taxation/capital gains
issues involving Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), expropriation, insurance matters such as fire destruction,
family law, environmental issues, assessment appeals, First Nation issues, and litigation support.

Case Studies pertaining to Price Diminution resulting in Value Diminution, Injurious Affection, have been
carried out. These included proximity to Airports, Hydro Corridors, Land Fill Sites, Wind Turbines,
Roads and Road Works, as well as contaminated land and buildings including urea formaldehyde foam
insulation.

Lansink Appraisals and Consulting is a division of Wellington Realty Group Incorporated, brokerage, Ben
Lansink, Broker of Record. Wellington Realty Group Incorporated is not an active brokerage and does not
list or sell real estate. It maintains Realtor® board memberships solely to obtain legal access to
various real estate board MLS® willing buyer willing seller open market systems.

PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATIONS

MRICS Member, The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, Member #1293804; awarded use of this
professional designation on November 16, 2009.
AACI, P.App Accredited Appraiser Canadian Institute, Certificate #2180.
Awarded use of the AACI professional designation on May 18, 1982 by the Appraisal Institute
of
Canada.
CRA Canadian Residential Appraiser, January 1976; relinquished May 18, 1982
FRI Fellow, Real Estate Institute of Canada, 1986; relinquished June 1995.
CLP Certified Land Planner, Real Estate Institute of Canada, 1990; relinquished June 1995.

Completed the Ecogift Training Workshop, July 2001, for the valuation of Ecological Gifts as has
been established by Environment Canada.

Successfully completed the ‘Certificate Program’ in real estate as presented by The Ontario Real
Estate Association.

Licensed under the Ontario Real Estate and Business Brokers Act in 1968 and as a Broker, November
17, 1986, Registration No. 1914433.

Licensed under the Ontario Real Estate and Business Brokers Act in 1968 and as a Broker, November
17, 1986, Registration No. 1914433.

EXPERIENCE

1974 – Present Fee Appraiser and Consultant
1970 – 1974 Mortgage Manager, The Royal Trust Company
– client and real estate mortgage loan approvals

Appraisal assignments have included:

  • Airports; harbours; cemeteries; funeral homes;
  • Institutional buildings; hospitals; police stations; schools; and churches;
  • Office towers; industrial properties;
  • Retail commercial properties; hotels; motels;
  • Mobile home/trailer parks; marinas; golf courses;
  • Farms and farm land; intensive farms (e.g. pork; dairy; chicken; mushroom)
  • Land,
    • Ecologically sensitive; parks and conservation; aggregate resource;
    • Commercial/industrial/residential land;
    • Building lots – on water and not on water;
    • Ecologically sensitive; parks and conservation; aggregate resource;
    • Landfill sites;
    • First Nation reserve lands;
  • rights-of-way; easements; market rent studies; rail corridors; pipelines; and
  • other property types.

Assignments have been carried out in Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, the Caribbean, the
State of Utah, and New Zealand.

MEMBERSHIP IN PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS

Appraisal Institute of Canada since 1972:

AACI, P.App:
Accredited Appraiser Canadian Institute, May 1982

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors since November 2009:

MRICS:
Member Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, November 2009

Member: London and St. Thomas Association of Realtors®;

Ontario Real Estate Association;

Canadian Real Estate Association;

National Commercial Council of the Canadian Real Estate Association;

Ontario Expropriation Association; and

The Toronto Real Estate Board.

PARTICIPATION IN PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATIONS

London and St. Thomas Association of Realtors®, Member, Education Committee 1987, 1988, and 1989
(Chairperson 1988); Board Director 1989 and 1990; Member, Ethics Committee 1989; Member, Ethics
Appeal Committee 1990.

Member of the Investigating Committee (1989 – 1992) and the Adjudicating Committee (1992 – 1995) of
the Appraisal Institute of Canada, Ontario Association. These committees addressed public complaints
against members of the Appraisal Institute of Canada, Ontario Association.

Local Architectural Conservation Advisory Committee (LACAC) 1990-1992, appointed by London City
Council to serve as a member at large.

Assessment Review Board of Ontario, a Land Tribunal: Member May 14, 1992 to May 14, 1998. Appointed
by an Order in Council, as recommended by the Attorney General, approved and ordered May 14, 1992
and again on May 14, 1995 by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario.

PUBLICATIONS AND STUDIES by Ben Lansink

Market Study Pit or Quarry January 2014

Diminution in Price (if any)

Market Study Roadway Analysis November 2013

Diminution in Price (Injurious Affection if Partial Taking)

Market Study Power Corridors April 2013

Diminution in Price (Injurious Affection if Partial Taking)

Wind Turbines Melancthon Clear Creek MPAC November 2012

Diminution in Price / Current Value

Effects of the Visible Transmission Corridor June 2011

Winner, ‘Call for Papers’, Appraisal Institute of Canada.

Lansink authored and presented a paper to appraiser delegates at the Annual Conference,
Appraisal Institute of Canada, Moncton, June 2011.

Market Study Non-Visible Easement May 2010

Diminution in Price

Market Study Non-Visible Easement May 2010

Diminution in Price

Lazar v. Hydro One – OMB, Injurious Affection June 2005

A case study paper based on a precedent setting case decided by the Ontario Municipal Board
in
June of 2002. Lansink presented the case study to appraiser delegates at the Appraisal
Institute
of Canada’s June 2005 Conference, Edmonton, Canada.

Adjusting for Conditions of Sale 1998

The Canadian Appraiser, Summer 1998.

Highest and Best Use/Land Use Controls 1998

Appraisal Institute of Canada, Ontario Association.

Assessment, Taxation, and the Fee Appraiser 1997

Appraisal Institute of Canada, Ontario Association.

UFFI and Market Value Spring 1985

The Canadian Appraiser, Volume 29, Book 1.

TEACHING

Taught the Assessment Program at Fanshawe College, London, 1980s.

Certified instructor, Courses 1101 and 1102, Appraisal Institute of Canada, 1980s until the end of
the 1990s.

Note: Appraisal Institute of Canada and the University of British
Columbia’s Sauder School of Business are now partners in offering a program designed for people
seeking to join the real property valuation profession–and for valuation practitioners already
employed in the industry who want to upgrade their education. The University of Guelph, Athabasca
University, L’Université du Québec à Montréal; Seneca College and Langara College also offer courses
recognized by the Appraisal Institute of Canada.

Certified instructor for the subject “The Principles of Mortgage Financing” for Ontario colleges as
administered by The Ontario Real Estate Association, 1975-1985.

Course instructor, Introduction to Appraisals, 1995-1996, Indian and Northern Affairs Canada.

CONTINUING EDUCATION, CONFERENCES

Ben Lansink is a member of the OEA and participates in its Seminars / Conferences.

AIC: Since the early 1990s, the Appraisal Institute of Canada (AIC) has had a mandatory
Continuing Professional Development (CPD) Program designed to ensure that Designated Members
maintain and enhance their knowledge and skills in their area of practice throughout their
career.
RECO: Since 2000 the Real Estate Council of Ontario Council of Ontario (RECO) has had a mandatory
continuing education program that provides significant benefits to registrants, and the open
market real estate buyers and sellers who look to them for guidance.
OEA: The Ontario Expropriation Association (the “OEA”) is made up of individuals from professions
involved in the acquisition of land for public purposes. Expropriation occurs when public
bodies such as the federal and provincial governments, municipalities or school boards,
acquire land for public purposes under compulsion of law. In the majority of cases,
expropriation involves a complicated process that must be carried out in strict accordance
with legislation (in Ontario the Expropriations Act, R.S.O. 1990, CHAPTER E.26).

Ben Lansink is a member of the OEA and participates in its Seminars / Conferences.

Ben Lansink attends most of the yearly conferences of the Appraisal Institute of Canada and its
Annual General Meetings.

EXPERT WITNESS EXPERIENCE

The Federal Court of Justice has jurisdiction over criminal, civil, and
family cases, and is the
largest superior trial court in Canada. The Divisional Court, Small Claims Court, and Family Court
are all branches of the Superior Court of Justice.The Superior Court of Justice has jurisdiction
over criminal, civil, and family cases, and is the largest superior trial court in Canada. The
Divisional Court, Small Claims Court, and Family Court are all branches of the Superior Court of
Justice.

Environment and Land Tribunals Ontario brings together five Ontario tribunals and boards which
adjudicate matters related to land use planning, environmental and heritage protection, property
assessment, land valuation and other matters. The land tribunals are the
Assessment Review Board,
the Board of Negotiation, and the Ontario Municipal Board.

The Federal Court. is Canada’s national trial court which hears and
decides legal disputes arising in
the federal domain, including claims against the Government of Canada, civil suits in
federally-regulated areas and challenges to the decisions of federal tribunals.

Over the years Mr. Lansink has been accepted as an expert witness to assist the
Superior Court of
Justice, the Land Tribunals, and the Federal Court.

CLIENTS

  1. Federal Government, Justice Canada;
  2. Provincial Government;
  3. Municipal Governments and Counties;
  4. Banks, Credit Unions, Mortgage Brokers / Lenders / Borrowers;
  5. Insurance Companies;
  6. Lawyers and Law Firms representing:
    • Corporate, institutional, and individual clients;
    • The Insurer of Members of the Law Society of Upper Canada;
    • The Insurer of Realtors®;
    • The Insurer of Members of the Appraisal Institute of Canada;
    • The Insurer of Members of the Appraisal Institute of Canada;
    • The Insurers of Real Property (Damage / Fire Insurance);
  7. First Nations:
    • Agency 1 First Nation, PWI-DI-GOO-ZING NE-YAA-ZING;
    • Beausoleil First Nation;
    • Cape Croker First Nation;
    • Chippewas of Georgina First Nation;
    • Chippewas of Rama (Mnjikaning) First Nation;
    • Chippewas of the Thames Land Claim Trust;
    • Mohawks of the Bay of Quinte First Nation;
    • NeyashiiNigmiing First Nation;
    • Nicickousemenecaning First Nation;
    • O’BASH’KAAN’DA’GAANG (Indian Reserve 38A);
    • Saugeen First Nation IR 28 and 29;
    • Walpole Island First Nation, Wapekeka First Nation, Reserve #1 and #2; and
    • Sachigo Lake Indian Reserve #1;
    • Assignments have involved both reserve land and non-reserve land that is under effective
      ownership of a First Nation; and

  8. Others
    • Superior Court of Justice, the Honourable Mr. Justice Colin L. Campbell;
    • Conservation Authorities, Nature Conservancy of Canada;
    • Private Corporations and Private Individuals (Canadian and International);
    • Universities; Colleges; School Boards; Hospitals; and others.

Market Study Roadway Analysis – November 2013

Click here for Diminution in Price (Injurious Affection if Partial Taking) Full Report

Market Study Roadway Analysis

November 2013

Diminution in Price, Injurious Affection

Prepared by

Ben Lansink, AACI, P.App, MRICS

ben@lansink.ca   519-645-0750

Market Study: Introduction

This purpose of this study is to isolate any loss in price caused by external obsolescence, in this study, the effects of a roadway change.

External obsolescence, an event over which the property owner has no control, may be real or perceived and it may be different for each property. However, each example in this study illustrates some type of ‘harm’ or ‘injurious affection’ that can be caused to a real property as a result of a roadway event.

To determine any loss in price due to a roadway widening, roadway development/change, traffic increase, and/or an expropriation required for roadway events, a number of properties were analyzed based on roadway events that occurred along the frontage of the example properties.

The scope of the study included:

  • Passage of time measured by changes in average price. Average price includes sold residential property and does not include sold commercial or industrial real property. The average price used to adjust for time is provided by the Canadian Real Estate Association (based on the example property board specific statistics).
  • Market value of land. Diminution in price is best measured by the actions of willing sellers and willing buyers functioning in the open market place. All examples within the study involve actions within the open market place. The permanent loss or diminution in price is directly related to the remaining land (in the event of an expropriation) or the entire parcel (in the event of a road widening within existing roadway allowances).
  • Compensation for permanent loss to the remaining property as a result of External Obsolescence – Properties affected by a roadway event. These analyses are not a Direct Comparison approach. In fact, the examples were selected due to similar events of external obsolescence and the study properties may not be similar to each other. The majority of the examples within the study consider a roadway event where a “smaller road”, a two-lane local or secondary collector road, was developed and changed to a “larger road”, a four-lane arterial road.
  • Renovations. This study takes into consideration the effect of renovations completed by the buyer after purchase of a property. The expected return (ROI) value of the renovations is provided by RENOVA, a web-based guide to the value of home improvements developed by the Appraisal Institute of Canada. RENOVA is designed to give consumers a better idea of the return on investment they can expect for a variety of home improvements. RENOVA does this by providing a payback value range derived from the cost of the improvement. For example, a homeowner might indicate that he or she is considering spending $10,000 on remodeling the kitchen. RENOVA will then provide a payback amount for that particular renovation. The goal of RENOVA was to determine, in the informed opinion of Canada’s professional real property valuers, what effect home improvement projects have on the price of resale houses.
  • Market Value vs. Price. The market value of real property is an estimate; Price is an historic fact. This report does not estimate value, it considers Price, and therefore it is not an appraisal as defined by Canadian Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice.

Injurious Affection

In order to determine the detrimental affect or ‘injurious affection’ of an expropriation on the remaining lands of a real property, the appraiser must work within the guidelines of the Expropriation Act for the respective province.

The questions that need to be addressed are:

  1. Has the remaining property been harmed or injured by the expropriation? Is there external obsolescence (incurable by the owner)?
  2. Is there a reduction in market value…to the remaining land?
  3. Is there a set-off?

Ontario

Expropriations Act, R.S.O. 1990, CHAPTER E.26, Consolidation Period: From June 6, 2011 to the e-Laws currency date. Last amendment: 2011, c. 9, Sched. 27, s. 25.

Interpretation Definitions

  1. (1) In this Act,

“injurious affection” means,

  • where a statutory authority acquires part of the land of an owner,
  • the reduction in market value thereby caused to the remaining land of the owner by the acquisition or by the construction of the works thereon or by the use of the works thereon or any combination of them, and
  • such personal and business damages, resulting from the construction or use, or both, of the works as the statutory authority would be liable for if the construction or use were not under the authority of a statute,
  • where the statutory authority does not acquire part of the land of an owner,
  • such reduction in the market value of the land of the owner, and
  • such personal and business damages,

resulting from the construction and not the use of the works by the statutory authority, as the statutory authority would be liable for if the construction were not under the authority of a statute,

and for the purposes of this clause, part of the lands of an owner shall be deemed to have been acquired where the owner from whom lands are acquired retains lands contiguous to those acquired or retains lands of which the use is enhanced by unified ownership with those acquired; (“effet préjudiciable”)

“land” includes any estate, term, easement, right or interest in, to, over or affecting land; (“bien-fonds”)

Compensation for Injurious Affection

  1. A statutory authority shall compensate the owner of land for loss or damage caused by injurious affection. R.S.O. 1990, c. E.26, s. 21.

EXTERNAL OBSOLESCENCE

External obsolescence addresses factors that influence the property and are normally beyond the control of the real property owner. The Appraisal Institute of Canada defines external obsolescence as:

A temporary or permanent impairment of the utility or saleability of an improvement or property due to negative influences outside the property. [1]

Types of external obsolescence may involve proximity to a land fill site, steel towers and electrical wires, an airport, a fire station, road works (that result in increased traffic, noise/air pollution, vandalism, theft, trespassing, and litter), a railway corridor, an industrial building next to single dwellings, and many others.

SET-OFF AGAINST DAMAGES, Sec 23.

The Ontario Expropriation Act, RSO, also addresses any advantages to the real property as a result of the expropriation. The monetary benefit of such advantages are subtracted from the damages and are known as “set-offs”.

The value of any advantage to the land or remaining land of an owner derived from any work for which land was expropriated or by which land was injuriously affected shall be set off only against the amount of the damages for injurious affection to the owner’s land or remaining lands.[2]

The value of any advantage to the land or remaining land must be set-off but only against the amount of the damages for injurious affection to the land or remaining lands.

Supreme Court, January 30, 1997

Toronto Area Transit Operating Authority v. Dell Holdings Ltd., the Supreme Court of Canada stated:

Per La Forest, Sopinka, Gonthier, Cory, McLachlin and Major JJ.:

“Since the Expropriations Act is a remedial statute, it must be given a broad and liberal interpretation consistent with its purpose to adequately compensate those whose lands are taken to serve the public interest.

Based on the recommendations of the Royal Commission Inquiry into Civil Rights and the Law Reform Commission report on expropriation an Expropriations Act was passed in 1968. That Act remains in substantially the same form today. It is clearly a remedial statute enacted for the specific purpose of adequately compensating those whose lands are taken to serve the public interest.

The expropriation of property is one of the ultimate exercises of governmental authority. To take all or part of a person’s property constitutes a severe loss and a very significant interference with a citizen’s private property rights. It follows that the power of an expropriating authority should be strictly construed in favour of those whose rights have been affected.

Further, since the Expropriations Act is a remedial statute, it must be given a broad and liberal interpretation consistent with its purpose. Substance, not form, is the governing factor.

‘It follows that the Expropriations Act should be read in a broad and purposive manner in order to comply with the aim of the Act to fully compensate a land owner whose property has been taken.”

Source: Toronto Area Transit Operating Authority v. Dell Holdings Ltd., [1997] 1 SCR 32

Market Study: Diminution in Price Caused by a Roadway Event

The study that follows is not a static document.

It will continue to evolve and be edited as new research and Price evidence is collected.

Example: 114 Ardagh Road, Barrie                                                                       Page 1 of 3

 

As reported by Leonard Borgdorff, Senior Project Engineer, City of Barrie, Ardagh Road (from Patterson Road to Ferndale Drive) was widened from two lanes to four lanes with the majority of construction during 2004 and 2005. The roadway was opened in late 2005/2006.

 

At present, the roadway is painted for two lanes with on-street parking until the traffic volume justifies four lanes.

 

The property sold before and after the road construction was commenced and completed. The details are as follows:

 

  • 114 Ardagh Road sold on July 22, 1997 (via MLS #9703646).

 

Price:                           $155,000

Seller:                          Houter

Buyer:                                     Wale

PIN:                              N/A

Area (MLS):                18 metres x 37.99 metres (or 683.82 sq. metres)

Area (Land Registry):             N/A

 

  • On June 5, 2002, PIN 58760-0444 was registered as a severed parcel to ‘The Corporation of The City of Barrie’. The area of the parcel is 92 sq. metres.

 

  • 114 Ardagh Road sold on March 6, 2007 (via MLS #0700352):

 

Price:                           $267,000

Seller:                          Wale

Buyer:                                     Walton

PIN:                              58760-0445

Area (MLS):                18 x 26.96 metres (or 485.28 sq. metres)

Area (Land Registry):             483 sq. metres

 

Based on the MLS descriptions, a number of improvements were made between the 1997 and 2007 sale dates. These include a fully finished basement, central air conditioning, a new roof (in 2005), and a gas fireplace.

 

The following page outlines the calculations required to analyze the diminution in value caused by the roadway changes, if any. The calculations considered are as follows:

 

  • State the sale date and sale price before the construction/event occurred;
  • State the sale date and sale price after the construction/event occurred;
  • Determine the RENOVA expected return for any improvements made to the property;
  • Calculate an adjusted sale price based on the RENOVA renovation expected returns;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase before;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase after;
  • Calculate an adjustment based on passage of time;
  • Calculate percentage loss, if any.
  • Conclude the diminution in Price (injurious affection), if any.

 

 

Example: 114 Ardagh Road, Barrie                                                                       Page 2 of 3

 

Sale Date 1 Jul 22, 1997
Sale Price 1 $155,000
Sale Date 2 Mar 6, 2007
Sale Price 2 $267,000
Adjustment for Time from Sale Date 1 to Sale Date 2
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 1 (~ July 1997) $140,569
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 2 (~ March 2007) $255,886
% Change from: Average Price (Sale Date 1)
to: Average Price (Sale Date 2)
A 82.04%
Sale Price 1 B $155,000
$ Adjustment A x B = C $127,156
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 B + C $282,156
Add Renovations to Adjusted Sale Price 1
Renovation Expected Cost Expected
Return
(ROI) *
Selected
Return (ROI)
Expected
Return Value
Total
Expected
Added Value
Basement $15,000 50% to 75% 50% $7,500 $22,500
Air Conditioning $2,500 25% to 75% 25% $625 $3,125
Roof $10,000 25% to 75% 25% $2,500 $12,500
Gas Fireplace $1,500 50% to 75% 50% $750 $2,250
Total Expected Return on Renovations $40,375

 

 

ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 $282,156
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 + Renovations $322,531
* The “Expected Return (ROI)” is provided by RENOVA.
Conclusion 114 Ardagh Road, Barrie      
The property should have sold for… (adjusted for time and renovations) $322,531
The property sold for… $267,000
Monetary Loss -$55,531
Percentage Loss (Diminution in Price) -17.22%

 

 

Example: 114 Ardagh Road, Barrie                                                                       Page 3 of 3

 

1997 MLS Photo 2007 MLS Photo
2010 Lansink Photo 2010 Lansink Photo
Area Map (Source: Bing Maps) Site Sketch (Source: GeoWarehouse)

 

 

Example: 154 Ardagh Road, Barrie                                                                       Page 1 of 3

 

As reported by Leonard Borgdorff, Senior Project Engineer, City of Barrie, Ardagh Road (from Patterson Road to Ferndale Drive) was widened from two lanes to four lanes with the majority of construction during 2004 and 2005. The roadway was opened in late 2005/2006.

 

At present, the roadway is painted for two lanes with on-street parking until the traffic volume justifies four lanes.

 

The property sold before and after the road construction was commenced and completed. The details are as follows:

 

  • 154 Ardagh Road sold on January 16, 2003 (via MLS #0206249).

 

Price:                           $149,500

Seller:                          Sawdon / Winkler

Buyer:                                     Crombie

PIN:                              N/A

Area (MLS):                38.10 metres x 27.42 metres (irregular)

Area (Land Registry):             N/A

 

  • On October 10, 2003, PIN 58761-0229 was registered as a severed parcel to ‘The Corporation of The City of Barrie’. The area of the parcel is 116 sq. metres.

 

  • 154 Ardagh Road sold on January 13, 2006 (via MLS #0507389):

 

Price:                           $158,000

Seller:                          Crombie

Buyer:                                     Arnold

PIN:                              58761-0230

Area (MLS):                38.10 metres x 27.42 metres (irregular)

Area (Land Registry):             939 sq. metres

 

Based on the MLS descriptions, it appears there were little to no improvements made between the dates. However, it was observed that a parking area was created by the City of Barrie with access from Ardagh Road.

 

The following page outlines the calculations required to analyze the diminution in value caused by the roadway changes, if any. The calculations considered are as follows:

 

  • State the sale date and sale price before the construction/event occurred;
  • State the sale date and sale price after the construction/event occurred;
  • Determine the RENOVA expected return for any improvements made to the property;
  • Calculate an adjusted sale price based on the RENOVA renovation expected returns;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase before;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase after;
  • Calculate an adjustment based on passage of time;
  • Calculate percentage loss, if any.
  • Conclude the diminution in Price (injurious affection), if any.

 

 

Example: 154 Ardagh Road, Barrie                                                                       Page 2 of 3

 

Sale Date 1 Jan 16, 2003
Sale Price 1 $149,500
Sale Date 2 Jan 13, 2006
Sale Price 2 $158,000
Adjustment for Time from Sale Date 1 to Sale Date 2
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 1 (~ January 2003) $191,635
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 2 (~ January 2006) $233,396
% Change from: Average Price (Sale Date 1)
to: Average Price (Sale Date 2)
A 21.79%
Sale Price 1 B $149,500
$ Adjustment A x B = C $32,579
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 B + C $182,079
Add Renovations to Adjusted Sale Price 1
Renovation Expected Cost Expected
Return
(ROI) *
Selected
Return (ROI)
Expected
Return Value
Total
Expected
Added Value
              $0
Total Expected Return on Renovations $0
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 $182,079
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 + Renovations $182,079
* The “Expected Return (ROI)” is provided by RENOVA.
Conclusion      
The property should have sold for… (adjusted for time and renovations) $182,079
The property sold for… $158,000
Monetary Loss -$24,079
Percentage Loss (Diminution in Price) -13.22%

 

 

Example: 154 Ardagh Road, Barrie                                                                       Page 3 of 3

 

2003 MLS Photo 2006 MLS Photo
2010 Lansink Photo 2010 Lansink Photo
Area Map (Source: Bing Maps) Site Sketch (Source: GeoWarehouse)

 

 

Example: 188 Ferndale Drive South, Barrie                                                        Page 1 of 3

 

As reported by Leonard Borgdorff, Senior Project Engineer, City of Barrie, Ferndale Road (from Ardagh Road past Summerset Drive) was widened from two lanes to four lanes with the majority of construction during 2006 and 2007. The roadway was opened in November 2007.

 

The property sold before and after the road construction was commenced and completed. The details are as follows:

 

  • 188 Ferndale Drive South sold on November 7, 2003 (via MLS #0305160).

 

Price:                           $235,000

Seller:                          Marshall

Buyer:                                     Fraser

PIN:                              58763-0086

Area (MLS):                15.10 metres x 35 metres

Area (Land Registry):             527 sq. metres

 

  • No land was taken for the road widening.

 

  • 188 Ferndale Drive South sold on July 3, 2008 (via MLS #0804054):

 

Price:                           $277,000

Seller:                          Fraser

Buyer:                                     Ouroumis

PIN:                              58763-0086

Area (MLS):                15.10 metres x 35 metres

Area (Land Registry):             527 sq. metres

 

Based on the MLS descriptions, only a few improvements were made between the 2003 and 2008 sale dates. These include minor refurbishments and central air conditioning.

 

The following page outlines the calculations required to analyze the diminution in value caused by the roadway changes, if any. The calculations considered are as follows:

 

  • State the sale date and sale price before the construction/event occurred;
  • State the sale date and sale price after the construction/event occurred;
  • Determine the RENOVA expected return for any improvements made to the property;
  • Calculate an adjusted sale price based on the RENOVA renovation expected returns;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase before;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase after;
  • Calculate an adjustment based on passage of time;
  • Calculate percentage loss, if any.
  • Conclude the diminution in Price (injurious affection), if any.

 

 

Example: 188 Ferndale Drive South, Barrie                                                        Page 2 of 3

 

Sale Date 1 Nov 7, 2003
Sale Price 1 $235,000
Sale Date 2 Jul 3, 2008
Sale Price 2 $277,000
Adjustment for Time from Sale Date 1 to Sale Date 2
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 1 (~ November 2003) $201,166
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 2 (~ July 2008) $265,360
% Change from: Average Price (Sale Date 1)
to: Average Price (Sale Date 2)
A 31.91%
Sale Price 1 B $235,000
$ Adjustment A x B = C $74,992
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 B + C $309,992
Add Renovations to Adjusted Sale Price 1
Renovation Expected Cost Expected
Return
(ROI) *
Selected
Return (ROI)
Expected
Return Value
Total
Expected
Added Value
Air Conditioning $2,500 25% to 75% 25% $625 $3,125
Total Expected Return on Renovations $3,125
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 $309,992
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 + Renovations $313,117
* The “Expected Return (ROI)” is provided by RENOVA.
Conclusion      
The property should have sold for… (adjusted for time and renovations) $313,117
The property sold for… $277,000
Monetary Loss -$36,117
Percentage Loss (Diminution in Price) -11.53%

 

 

Example: 188 Ferndale Drive South, Barrie                                                        Page 3 of 3

 

2003 MLS Photo 2008 MLS Photo
2010 Lansink Photo 2010 Lansink Photo
Area Map (Source: Bing Maps) Site Sketch (Source: GeoWarehouse)

 

 

Example: 163 Professor Day Drive, Bradford                                                     Page 1 of 3

 

As reported by Vince Musacchio, Capital Projects, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Professor Day Drive (from Holland Street West to 8th Line) was widened from two lanes to four lanes with the majority of construction during 2007. The roadway was opened in 2008. Professor Day Drive was extended north to 8th Line.

 

The property sold before and after the road construction was commenced and completed. The details are as follows:

 

  • 163 Professor Day Drive sold on March 21, 2006 (via MLS #N863695).

 

Price:                           $257,000

Seller:                          Medeiros

Buyer:                                     Cull / Delaney

PIN:                              58032-0994

Area (MLS):                9 metres x 36.58 metres

Area (Land Registry):             332 sq. metres

 

  • No land was taken for the road widening.
  • 188 Ferndale Drive South sold on April 27, 2009 (via MLS #N1583514):

 

Price:                           $274,000

Seller:                          Cull / Delany

Buyer:                                     Saqib

PIN:                              58032-0994

Area (MLS):                9 metres x 36.58 metres

Area (Land Registry):             332 sq. metres

 

Based on the MLS descriptions, only a few improvements were made between the 2006 and 2009 sale dates. The major refurbishment outlined was a basement renovation.

 

The following page outlines the calculations required to analyze the diminution in value caused by the roadway changes, if any. The calculations considered are as follows:

 

  • State the sale date and sale price before the construction/event occurred;
  • State the sale date and sale price after the construction/event occurred;
  • Determine the RENOVA expected return for any improvements made to the property;
  • Calculate an adjusted sale price based on the RENOVA renovation expected returns;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase before;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase after;
  • Calculate an adjustment based on passage of time;
  • Calculate percentage loss, if any.
  • Conclude the diminution in Price (injurious affection), if any.

 

 

Example: 163 Professor Day Drive, Bradford                                                     Page 2 of 3

 

Sale Date 1 May 7, 2006
Sale Price 1 $257,000
 
Sale Date 2 Apr 27, 2009
Sale Price 2 $274,000
Adjustment for Time from Sale Date 1 to Sale Date 2
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 1 (~ May 2006) $246,003
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 2 (~ April 2009) $260,079
% Change from: Average Price (Sale Date 1)
to: Average Price (Sale Date 2)
A 5.72%
Sale Price 1 B $257,000
$ Adjustment A x B = C $14,705
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 B + C $271,705
Add Renovations to Adjusted Sale Price 1
Renovation Expected Cost Expected
Return
(ROI) *
Selected
Return (ROI)
Expected
Return Value
Total
Expected
Added Value
Basement $20,000 50% to 75% 50% $10,000 $30,000
Air Conditioning $2,500 25% to 75% 25% $625 $3,125
                  $0
Total Expected Return on Renovations $33,125
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 $271,705
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 + Renovations $304,830
* The “Expected Return (ROI)” is provided by RENOVA.
Conclusion      
The property should have sold for… (adjusted for time and renovations) $304,830
The property sold for… $274,000
Monetary Loss -$30,830
Percentage Loss (Diminution in Price) -10.11%

 

 

Example: 163 Professor Day Drive, Bradford                                                     Page 3 of 3

 

2006 MLS Photo 2009 MLS Photo
2010 Lansink Photo 2010 Lansink Photo
Area Map (Source: Bing Maps) Site Sketch (Source: GeoWarehouse)

 

 

Example: 253-255 Commissioners Road East, London                                   Page 1 of 3

 

A portion of the analysis, “Diminution in Value Study – Reconstruction of Adelaide Street”, is cited from Lansink Appraisals and Consulting files. The analysis is also included within “A Case Study: Injurious Affection (Lazar v. Hydro One)”, by Ben Lansink, AACI, P.App, Lansink Appraisals and Consulting.

 

The owner of 245 Commissioners Road East applied to rezone his 3.25 acre property for medium density residential but did not succeed.

 

He then applied for and was successful in severing two lots (69,171 sq. ft. total). Each lot was suitable for single detached dwelling construction and use.

 

The two lots, 253-255 Commissioners, were sold to Mortimer/Brocklehurst in December 1999 for $115,000 each, or $230,000 for both, or $3.39 per square foot for 67,795 square feet total. A total of 1,376 square feet was dedicated to the City of London for road widening.

 

The purchasers were aware the road would be enlarged to four lanes and there would be a new sidewalk and bicycle path along the front of their land. The home sits well back from Commissioners Road as the purchasers constructed their home with the footprint close to the rear lot line.

 

Area Breakdown
33R-14706 Part M2 Sq. Ft. Purchaser-Owner Sq. Ft.
1 2,899.70 31,212.11 Brocklehurst-Mortimer 31,212.11
2 2,119.90 22,818.41 22,818.41
3 1,091.40 11,747.73 11,747.73
4 140.70 1,514.48 1,514.48
5 63.90 687.81 Dedicated to City of London

(about 10 Feet wide)

0.00
6 9.60 103.33 0.00
7 9.60 103.33 0.00
8 44.70 481.15 0.00
9 23.90 257.26 Brocklehurst-Mortimer 257.26
10 22.80 245.42 245.42
Square Feet Dedicated to City 1,375.63  
Total Area (Sq. Ft.) Purchased by Brocklehurst-Mortimer 67,795.41
Purchase Price (two Deeds) $230,000
Purchase Price (price per square foot) $3.39

 

 

Example: 253-255 Commissioners Road East, London                                   Page 2 of 3

 

Calculations continued…

 

Possible Value – Lot suitable for single detached dwelling use – Dec 1999
No. Location Date Sold Price Square Feet $/Sq. Ft.
i 173 Base Line Rd May-99 $100,000 17,117 $5.84
ii 692 Hillcrest Jun-99 $82,000 12,465 $6.58
iii 1103 Riverside Oct-99 $62,500 13,498 $4.63
iv 1099 Riverside Oct-99 $62,500 10,000 $6.25
v 26 Old Mill Ct Feb-00 $90,000 10,000 $9.00
Median Price $6.25
The subject sites were much larger at about 33, 900 sq. ft. each,
hence a downward adjustment is made
25.0%
Adjusted Median Price $4.69
Note: There are lot sales at about $18.00 per sq. ft. located on Edwin which is close to
253-255 Commissioners; however these sales did not occur until July 2001.

 

Injurious Affection
a Average Price 1999 $131,254  
b Average Price 1999 $131,254
c Market Change over period $0 0%
d Actual Price 1999 $3.39  
e Add Market Change 0.00% $0
f Market Price 1999 $3.39
g Market Value 1999 $4.69
h Injurious Affection -$1.30 -38.27%

 

 

Example: 253-255 Commissioners Road East, London                                   Page 3 of 3

 

   
  Lansink Photo: 245 Commissioners Lansink Photo:253 Commissioners  
Site Sketch (Source: GeoWarehouse / Bing Maps)
   
  Area Map (Source: Bing Maps) Site Sketch (Source: City of London Website)  

 

 

Example: 465 Ridout Street South, London                                                        Page 1 of 3

 

A portion of the analysis, “Diminution in Value Study – Reconstruction of Adelaide Street”, is cited from Lansink Appraisals and Consulting files. The analysis is also included within “A Case Study: Injurious Affection (Lazar v. Hydro One)”, by Ben Lansink, AACI, P.App, Lansink Appraisals and Consulting.

 

 

Summary

 

In 2000, the City of London purchased 465 Ridout Street for $170,000. The vendors sold the property to the City of London under threat of expropriation; hence it was not an open market sale. The vendors did not pay Realtors® commission and the City paid the vendors a moving allowance.

 

In the open market place, vendors typically pay Realtors® fees and all moving costs.

 

Adjusted, the vendors received an open market price of $195,500 ($170,000 + $25,500), in other words the vendors effectively received $195,500 but it is assumed they had to pay Realtors® fees and all moving costs similar to a typical open market sale.

 

The City of London purchased the entire property, 817 m2 or 8,794 sq. ft.

 

The City of London retained 151 m2 or 1,625 sq. ft. or 18.5% of the property for the widening of Ridout Street and Commissioners Road East.

 

In 2003, the City of London sold 465 Ridout Street consisting of 666 m2 or 7,169 sq. ft. for $160,000 with the City, as vendor, reportedly paying Realtors® commission, which is typical of the open market.

 

Note that the building was constructed facing Commissioners Road; however ingress/egress is from Ridout Street The building footprint hugs its northerly boundary sitting as far as possible from the road allowance for Commissioners Road, which results in a normal-appearing front yard.

 

The following page outlines the calculations required to analyze the diminution in value caused by the roadway changes, if any. The calculations considered are as follows:

 

  • State the sale date and sale price before the construction/event occurred;
  • State the sale date and sale price after the construction/event occurred;
  • Determine the RENOVA expected return for any improvements made to the property;
  • Calculate an adjusted sale price based on the RENOVA renovation expected returns;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase before;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase after;
  • Calculate an adjustment based on passage of time;
  • Calculate difference between time adjusted sale price and RENOVA adjusted sale price;
  • Calculate percentage loss, if any.
  • Conclude the diminution in Price (injurious affection), if any.

 

 

Example: 465 Ridout Street South, London                                                        Page 2 of 3

 

Sale Date 1 Jun 1, 2000
Sale Price 1 $170,000
Adjustment to reflect Realtors® fees, moving cost, etc. 15%
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 $195,500
Sale Date 2 Aug 19, 2003
Sale Price 2 $160,000
Adjustment for Time from Sale Date 1 to Sale Date 2
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 1 (~ June 2000) $135,857
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 2 (~ August 2003) $154,092
% Change from: Average Price (Sale Date 1)
to: Average Price (Sale Date 2)
A 13.42%
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 B $195,500
$ Adjustment A x B = C $26,240
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 B + C $221,740
Add Renovations to Adjusted Sale Price 1
Renovation Expected Cost Expected
Return
(ROI) *
Selected
Return (ROI)
Expected
Return Value
Total
Expected
Added Value
              $0
Total Expected Return on Renovations $0
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 $221,740
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 + Renovations $221,740
* The “Expected Return (ROI)” is provided by RENOVA.
Conclusion      
The property should have sold for… (adjusted for time and renovations) $221,740
The property sold for… $160,000
Monetary Loss -$61,740
Percentage Loss (Diminution in Value) -27.84%

 

 

Example: 465 Ridout Street South, London                                                        Page 3 of 3

 

Lansink Photo Site Sketch (Source: GeoWarehouse / Bing Maps)

 

Area Map (Source: Bing Maps) Site Sketch (Source: GeoWarehouse)

 

 

Example: 788 Oxford Street West, London                                                        Page 1 of 2

 

Oxford Street is a major east west arterial road in London. The section of Oxford Street West between the rail overpass and Hyde Park Road was reconstructed to five lanes with one lane being a turning lane. Construction commenced in 2005 and ended in early 2006.

 

The Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) had been approximately 15,000 prior to construction and was expected to increase to approximately 33,500 after construction.

 

Area Map (Source: Bing Maps) Site Sketch (Source: GeoWarehouse)

 

 

The following page outlines the calculations required to analyze the diminution in value caused by the roadway changes, if any. The calculations considered are as follows:

 

  • State the sale date and sale price before the construction/event occurred;
  • State the sale date and sale price after the construction/event occurred;
  • Determine the RENOVA expected return for any improvements made to the property;
  • Calculate an adjusted sale price based on the RENOVA renovation expected returns;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase before;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase after;
  • Calculate an adjustment based on passage of time;
  • Calculate percentage loss, if any.
  • Conclude the diminution in Price (injurious affection), if any.

 

 

Example: 788 Oxford Street West, London                                                        Page 2 of 2

 

Sale Date 1 Nov 18, 2005
Sale Price 1 $150,000
Sale Date 2 Apr 24, 2008
Sale Price 2 $189,900
Adjustment for Time from Sale Date 1 to Sale Date 2
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 1 (~ November 2005) $181,183
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 2 (~ April 2008) $211,530
% Change from: Average Price (Sale Date 1)
to: Average Price (Sale Date 2)
A 16.75%
Sale Price 1 B $150,000
$ Adjustment A x B = C $25,124
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 B + C $175,124
Add Renovations to Adjusted Sale Price 1
Renovation Expected Cost Expected
Return
(ROI) *
Selected
Return (ROI)
Expected
Return Value
Total
Expected
Added Value
“Aya” Kitchen $25,000 75% to 100% 75% $18,750 $43,750
Bathroom 1 $7,500 75% to 100% 75% $5,625 $13,125
Bathroom 2 $5,000 75% to 100% 75% $3,750 $8,750
Central Air $2,500 25% to 75% 25% $625 $3,125
Total Expected Return on Renovations $68,750
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 $175,124
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 + Renovations $243,874
* The “Expected Return (ROI)” is provided by RENOVA
Conclusion      
The property should have sold for… (adjusted for time and renovations) $243,874
The property sold for… $189,900
Monetary Loss -$53,974
Percentage Loss (Diminution in Value) -22.13%

 

 

Example: 736 Oxford Street West, London                                                        Page 1 of 2

 

Oxford Street is a major east west arterial road in London. The section of Oxford Street West between the rail overpass and Hyde Park Road was reconstructed to five lanes with one lane being a turning lane. Construction commenced in 2005 and ended in early 2006.

 

The Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) had been approximately 15,000 prior to construction and was expected to increase to approximately 33,500 after construction.

 

Area Map (Source: Bing Maps) Site Sketch (Source: GeoWarehouse)

 

 

The following page outlines the calculations required to analyze the diminution in value caused by the roadway changes, if any. The calculations considered are as follows:

 

  • State the sale date and sale price before the construction/event occurred;
  • State the sale date and sale price after the construction/event occurred;
  • Determine the RENOVA expected return for any improvements made to the property;
  • Calculate an adjusted sale price based on the RENOVA renovation expected returns;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase before;
  • Determine the average residential price on the date of purchase after;
  • Calculate an adjustment based on passage of time;
  • Calculate percentage loss, if any.
  • Conclude the diminution in Price (injurious affection), if any.

 

 

 

Example: 736 Oxford Street West, London                                                        Page 2 of 2

 

Sale Date 1 Sep 12, 1990
Sale Price 1 $126,000
Sale Date 2 Jan 5, 2007
Sale Price 2 $155,000
Adjustment for Time from Sale Date 1 to Sale Date 2
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 1 (~ September 1990) $134,920
Average 3 Month Price: Sale Date 2 (~ January 2007) $195,623
% Change from: Average Price (Sale Date 1)
to: Average Price (Sale Date 2)
A 44.99%
Sale Price 1 B $126,000
$ Adjustment A x B = C $56,690
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 B + C $182,690
Add Renovations to Adjusted Sale Price 1
Renovation Expected Cost Expected
Return
(ROI) *
Selected
Return (ROI)
Expected
Return Value
Total
Expected
Added Value
              $0
Total Expected Return on Renovations $0
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 $182,690
ADJUSTED Sale Price 1 + Renovations $182,690
* The “Expected Return (ROI)” is provided by RENOVA
Conclusion      
The property should have sold for… (adjusted for time and renovations) $182,690
The property sold for… $155,000
Monetary Loss -$27,690
Percentage Loss (Diminution in Value) -15.16%

 

 

Example: Oxford Street West, London                                                               Page 1 of 2

 

Oxford Street is a major east west arterial road in London. The section of Oxford Street West between the rail overpass and Hyde Park Road was reconstructed to five lanes with one lane being a turning lane. Construction commenced in 2005 and ended in early 2006.

 

The Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) had been approximately 15,000 prior to construction and was expected to increase to approximately 33,500 after construction.

 

 

 

The following page outlines the calculations required to analyze the diminution in value caused by the roadway changes, if any.

 

Comparable criteria were as follows:

 

  • All properties on Oxford Street West in this study are within the reconstructed area.
  • Each property is the same vintage, design and offers similar utility.
  • All dwellings are in the 1,000 to 1,300 sq. ft. range and all have finished basements.
  • All properties sold in 2006 or 2007.

 

The calculations considered are as follows:

 

  • Calculate the sale price per square foot of building including land for each property.
  • Calculate the average and median of sale price per square foot of building including land.
  • Compare averages of Oxford Street West properties versus comparable properties.
  • Calculate percentage loss, if any.
  • Conclude the diminution in Price (injurious affection), if any.

 

 

Example: Oxford Street West, London                                                               Page 2 of 2

 

Oxford Street West Sales (Arterial Roadway)
Address MLS Date Sold Sale Price Sq. Ft. Sale Price per Sq. Ft.
736 Oxford Street West Jan 05-07 $155,000 999 $155.16
746 Oxford Street West Jul 11-07 $221,900 1,290 $172.02
796 Oxford Street West Jun 15-07 $180,000 1,065 $169.01
Average $/Sq. Ft. of Building Including Land $165.39
Median $/Sq. Ft. of Building Including Land $169.01
Comparable Sales (Local Street/Secondary Collector, 1 to 2 blocks south of Oxford Street West)
Address MLS Date Sold Sale Price Sq. Ft. Sale Price per Sq. Ft.
750 Inverness Avenue Jun 28-06 $217,500 1,077 $201.95
127 Deer Park Circle Aug 23-06 $217,000 1,050 $206.67
727 Inverness Avenue Jun 29-07 $240,000 1,185 $202.53
700 Inverness Avenue Apr 26-07 $238,000 999 $238.24
696 Inverness Avenue Jun 21-06 $184,000 1,063 $173.10
706 Inverness Avenue May 27-06 $199,900 1,147 $174.28
200 Deer Park Circle Jun 26-07 $238,900 1,203 $198.59
Average $/Sq. Ft. of Building Including Land $199.34
Median $/Sq. Ft. of Building Including Land $201.95
Diminution in Value Calculation
Arterial Oxford Street West Sales Average $/Sq. Ft. of Building Including Land $165.39
Local or Secondary Collector Sales Average $/Sq. Ft. of Building Including Land $199.34
  $ Difference -$33.94
  % Difference -17.03%

 

 

Conclusion
The above analysis illustrates, via the open market place, that a property on an Arterial Road (Oxford Street West) sold for less than a property on a Local or Secondary Collector roadway.
A property should have sold for… $199.34 per sq. ft. of building including land
A property sold for… $165.39 per sq. ft. of building including land
Therefore, the Arterial Roadway location has caused a diminution in Price of approximately 17.03%.

 

 

Municipal Property Assessment Corporation

 

The Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) is a non-profit Provincial corporation that completes assessments for all real property in Ontario. The valuation system used by MPAC is based on current value assessment (CVA).

 

For each assessment, MPAC uses industry-standard Computer Assisted Mass Appraisal techniques to analyze sales and property data across the province. The primary valuation tool within the Computer Assisted Mass Appraisal is ‘Multiple Regression Analysis’, a statistical tool used by assessing authorities to automate the sales comparison approach to value in a mass appraisal setting.[3] Within Multiple Regression Analysis, multiple variables are used in the calculation of the value assessment. MPAC uses ‘abutment and proximity variables’ within the calculations.

 

The diagram below, as sourced from the MPAC website, provides an example of a subject property. The lots with the ‘A’ would typically be considered to be abutting the subject property. The lots with the ‘P’ would typically be considered as being in proximity to the subject property.

 

Source: http://www.mpac.on.ca

 

The following definitions of the variables are also sourced by the MPAC website:

 

Traffic Pattern (light)

Property fronts or sides onto a street that feeds into specific subdivision from primary or secondary road. One of main roads is in a subdivision.

 

Traffic Pattern (medium)

Property fronts or sides onto a street or highway subject to intermittent flow of traffic throughout the day.

 

 

 

Traffic Pattern (heavy)

Abuts – property directly fronts street or highway, subject to constant flow of traffic throughout entire day. Typically considered as major artery in municipality in urban area with several traffic lights to control traffic.

Proximity – property indirectly fronts, backs or sides onto street or highway subject to constant flow of traffic throughout entire day. Typically considered as major artery in municipality in urban area with several traffic lights to control traffic.

 

Traffic Pattern (extremely heavy)

Abuts – property directly fronts, backs or sides onto a 400-series highway or equivalent (e.g., Don Valley Parkway). Generally has two or more lanes of traffic in each direction and controlled access to highway.

Proximity – property indirectly fronts, backs or sides onto a 400-series highway or equivalent (e.g., Don Valley Parkway).   Generally has two or more lanes of traffic in each direction and controlled access to highway.

 

 

MPAC reported that the variable values for diminution caused by either abutment or proximity to a traffic pattern used within the ‘Multiple Regression Analysis’ vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood and model to model. The diminution in value percentages are in the range of:

 

-3% to -17%

 

 

 

 

Effects of a Roadway: General Overview

 

There are real or perceived effects, risks, and concerns when a high traffic volume roadway is constructed, used, and maintained. There are many reasons why property buyers discount the price of property along a high traffic volume roadway.

 

The following section of this study provides examples of possible effects, risks, and concerns related to high traffic volume roadways. .

 

 

Respiratory and Heart Problems

 

Traffic pollution can prevent the lungs of children who live near busy roads from developing properly, making them more likely to suffer respiratory and heart problems later in life, U.S. researchers said on Friday (Jan. 26, 2007).

 

They found that children who had lived within 500 yards of a highway from the age of 10, had significantly less lung function by the time they reached 18 than youngsters exposed to less traffic pollution.

 

Source: msnbc.com news services, 2007, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16831975/ns/health-kids_and_parenting/

 

 

Premature Deaths

 

The Ontario Medical Association says that air pollution is responsible for 59,000 emergency room visits and 5,800 premature deaths every year. Poor air quality costs our province almost $10 billion a year. Cars and trucks aren’t the only cause of this, but they are a major contributor, and we have the power ourselves to do something about it.

 

While cars and trucks contribute to smog, emissions from these vehicles affect us at the most local level. Research shows that, when vehicles are banned from city streets, hospitalizations for asthma go down. And air pollution gets worse the closer you live to a major road, especially one with frequent traffic jams.

 

Source: Ontario Ministry of the Environment, 2010, http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/en/myenvironment/away/vehicles.php

 

 

 

Effects of Noise Pollution on Health

 

Noise pollution can be caused due to various sources – there is street noise, traffic noise, noise in public transport places…

 

Noise pollution can take a severe toll on human health in the long run. These effects will not become apparent immediately, but there could be repercussions later on. The following is a list of the kinds of effects noise pollution will have on human health after continuous exposure for months, and even years:-

 

  • The most immediate effect is a deterioration of mental health. As an example, people who are living too close to airports will probably be quite jumpy. Continuous noise can create panic episodes in a person and can even increase frustration levels. Also, noise pollution is a big deterrent in focusing the mind to a particular task. Over time, the mind may just lose its capacity to concentrate on things.

 

  • Another immediate effect of noise pollution is a deterioration of the ability to hear things clearly. Even on a short-term basis, noise pollution can cause temporary deafness. But if the noise pollution continues for a long period of time, there’s a danger that the person might go stone deaf.

 

  • Noise pollution also takes a toll on the heart. It is observed that the rate at which heart pumps blood increases when there is a constant stimulus of noise pollution. This could lead to side-effects like elevated heartbeat frequencies, palpitations, breathlessness and the like, which may even culminate into seizures.

 

  • Noise pollution can cause dilation in the pupils of the eye, which could interfere in ocular health in the later stages of life.

 

  • Noise pollution is known to increase digestive spasms. This could be the precursor of chronic gastrointestinal problems.

 

Source: 2010, http://www.buzzle.com/articles/noise-pollution.html

 

A “Position Paper” released by The European Union Road Federation, May 2004, reported that Germany estimates that for each 1dB(A) increase in noise levels, average property values fall by 0.5%.

 

 

Asthma and Reduced Lung Function

 

People living or otherwise spending substantial time within about 200 m of highways are exposed to these pollutants more so than persons living at a greater distance, even compared to living on busy urban streets. Evidence of the health hazards of these pollutants arises from studies that assess proximity to highways, actual exposure to the pollutants, or both. Taken as a whole, the health studies show elevated risk for development of asthma and reduced lung function in children who live near major highways.

 

Source: Environmental Health, 2007, http://www.ehjournal.net/content/6/1/23

 

 

Cancer, Asthma, Premature and Low-Birthweight Babies

 

Air pollution from motor vehicles increases rates of cancer, asthma, premature and low-birthweight babies and creates other health woes. And the closer you live to congested roads, the greater the danger to your health.

 

Source: Lois M. Collins Deseret Morning News “Vehicular air pollution linked to myriad maladies”. Deseret News (Salt Lake City). FindArticles.com. 18 Jun, 2010. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4188/is_20040729/ai_n11467062/

 

 

Pneumonia

 

“Our study found that among older individuals, long-term exposure to traffic pollution independently increased their risk of hospitalization for pneumonia,” principal investigator, Mark Loeb, M.D., of McMaster University, Ontario, Canada.

 

Source: American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, January 1, 2010,

http://www.ivanhoe.com/channels/p_channelstory.cfm?storyid=23126

 

 

Birthweight

 

Scientist has found the relationship between exposure to traffic pollution and the affect of the development of babies in the womb. A mother who has a high level of exposure in early and late stages of pregnancy are more likely that the baby would not grow properly although more detailed research into the link was necessary.

 

Source: 2010, http://myhealthoption.blogspot.com/

 

 

Mental and Physical Health Problems

 

Excessive traffic noise is one of the most common complaints among American residents. Millions of people are affected by constant traffic noise in their own home. In fact, traffic noise impacts more people than any other environmental noise source. Traffic noise can affect the ability to work, learn, rest, relax, sleep, etc. Excessive noise can lead to mental and physical health problems. If your home is near a major road or you are experiencing problems with traffic noise, you may be able to limit the impact on yourself and your family.

 

Source: 2003, http://www.trafficnoise.org/

 

 

 

 

Increase Risk of Heart Attack

 

People living in environments with high levels of road traffic noise might be more likely to suffer myocardial infarction (commonly known as a heart attack) than people in quieter areas.

 

Source: 2009, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090202135936.htm

 

 

Hyper-tension

 

Results from studies of road traffic noise and hypertension are heterogeneous with respect to effect size, effects among males and females and with respect to effects across age groups. The study supports an association between road traffic noise at high average levels and self-reported hypertension in middle-aged.

 

Source: Environmental Health, 2009, http://www.ehjournal.net/content/8/1/38

 

 

Market Study: Conclusions

Based on the market study, the analyses are summarized below:

 

Property Land Taken? Diminution in Price
114 Ardagh Road, Barrie Yes -17.22%
154 Ardagh Road, Barrie Yes -13.22%
188 Ferndale Drive South, Barrie No -11.53%
163 Professor Day Drive, Bradford No -10.11%
253-255 Commissioners Road East, London Yes -38.27%
465 Ridout Street, London Yes -27.84%
788 Oxford Street West, London No -22.13%
736 Oxford Street West, London No -15.16%
Oxford Street, London No -17.03%
Average Loss -19.17%
Median Loss -17.03%
Minimum Loss -10.11%
Maximum Loss -38.27%

 

MPAC Diminution in Value
Traffic Pattern (Abutment and Proximity) -3% to -17%

 

The purpose of this market study was to “determine any loss in Price due to a roadway widening, roadway development/change, traffic increase, and/or an expropriation required for roadway events” and to isolate any loss in value caused by the external obsolescence (the roadway event).

 

By analyzing the price of these properties before and after the roadway event, this study has determined that external obsolescence caused by ‘roadway events’ has a negative effect on the Price, hence value of properties abutting the roadway.

 

Most people have an opinion regarding obsolescence and the effect on themselves, their surroundings, their property, and on society. The harm may be real or perceived and it may be different for each property and to each property seller and buyer. Compensation for Price diminution, hence value diminution, to the remaining property as a result of obsolescence, injurious affection, is best measured by the actions of willing sellers and willing buyers functioning in the open market place.

 

 

Analysis – 22060 Nissouri Road

This is a value diminution analysis based on the BEFORE road construction value vs. the actual price AFTER road construction. Nissouri Road was widened and reconstructed by the County of Middlesex.

 

The vacant Lot at 22060 Nissouri Road sold for $83,000 in May of 2012. [4]

An appraisal report pertaining to the 1.399 acre or 0.5662 hectare vacant and unimproved site suitable for future single family dwelling use was completed. On December 8, 2009, the County of Middlesex Expropriated 0.0618 acres or 0.025 hectare via Part 6 on Plan ER679998.

 

The taking was a narrow strip of land running next to and parallel to Nissouri Road.

 

The estimated compensation for Injurious Affection was estimated to be zero percent or $0, nil, by the Expropriating Authority.

 

The appraisal report stated “…an estimated $18.50 per square meter is considered the best indication of current value for the subject property.

 

Based on the market value estimate of $18.50 per M2, the estimated Fee Simple Market Value of the Land AFTER Expropriation was:
Land Area Before Expropriated Land Area After $/Unit Value
5,662.00 M2 250.00 5,412 $18.50 $100,122
60,945.26 Sq. Ft. 2,690.98 58,254.28 $1.64 $100,122

 

A portion of the Expropriation Act, 25. (1), follows:

 

  • offer the registered owner immediate payment of 100 per cent of the amount of the market value of the owner’s land as estimated by the expropriating authority…

 

The County’s estimated land value was $18.50 $/M2 for the Sec. 25 payment.

 

 

22060 Nissouri Road – Aerial AFTER the taking

 

 

Source: GEOWarehouse

 

The property at 22060 Nissouri Road sold in May of 2012 “AFTER” the expropriation and the road reconstruction for $83,000. The property, a vacant lot suitable for dwelling construction and use, had been offered on the open market. Several persons made inspections.

 

After a few months the seller’s accepted an Agreement of Purchase and Sale.

 

The December 2009 Sec. 25 value “BEFORE” was $100,122 and the open market sale was only $83,000.

 

The new home constructed is set-back about 180 feet from the new pavement’s edge.

 

 

 

When adjusted for the passage of time, this sale provides very strong evidence that the road taking and road works resulted in a diminution of minus -28.67%.

 

Passage of Time Calculation, Injurious Affection, 22060 Nissouri Road
The average MLS® price – London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® on December 2009 was $215,582 per dwelling.   In May 2012, the date to property sold, the average MLS® price was $250,547 per dwelling resulting in a Change of 16.22%. Market Price May 2012 $250,547
Market Price December 2009 $215,582
$Change $34,965
%Change 16.22%
Subject site was valued for the County of Middlesex as of December 2009 BEFORE the easement taking for $100,122 but would have resold May 2012 assuming NO easement taking for $116,361. Sec 25 Actual Value December 2009 $100,122
%Change 16.22%
$Change $16,239
Sec 25 Adjusted Value May 2012 $116,361
However the Actual Price on May 2012 after the easement taking was $83,000, a loss of -$33,361. Actual Price May 2012 $83,000
$Difference -$33,361
Diminution in Value: -28.67%. %Difference -28.67%

 

The County of Middlesex determined that the vacant lot at 22060 Nissouri Road would NOT be injuriously affected by the taking and concluded zero per cent (0%) estimated Injurious Affection.

 

Based on the appraised value utilized by the Expropriating Authority for the Sec. 25 offer, the Injurious Affection was minus -28.67%, not 0%.

 

 

 

22044 Nissouri Road

 

In December 8, 2009, Part 1 on ER67999B was expropriated from 22044 Nissouri Road, Thorndale.

 

In a report dated August 9, 2011, Ben Lansink valued 22044 Nissouri Road “BEFORE” the taking at $351,887 and Injurious Affection at 15% both as at the effective value date of December 8, 2009.

 

The property sold “AFTER” the taking and the new road construction.

 

The property sold via the MLS® system April 2013 for $375,000.

 

The actual Injurious Affection in April 2013 was minus -18.73%, not minus -15% as estimated by Lansink in his DRAFT report dated August 9, 2011.

 

Passage of Time Calculation – 22044 Nissouri Road
The average MLS® price London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® on December 2009 was $190,617 per dwelling.   On April 2013 the average MLS® price was $249,952 per dwelling resulting in a Change of 31.13%. Market Price April 2013 $249,952
Market Price December 2009 $190,617
$Change $59,335
%Change 31.13%
Subject property 22044 Nissouri Road was valued by Ben Lansink as of December 2009 BEFORE the easement taking for $351,887 but would have resold April 2013 assuming NO easement taking for $461,422. Value Estimate December 2009 $351,887
%Change 31.13%
$Change $109,535
Adjusted Value April 2013 $461,422
However the Actual Price on April 2013 after the easement taking was $375,000, a loss of -$86,422. Actual Price April 2013 $375,000
$Difference -$86,422
Diminution in Value: -18.73%. %Difference -18.73%

 

 

 

22044 Nissouri Road

 

 

Source:   GEOWarehouse

 

 

Source: Ben Lansink

 

 

Certification by Ben Lansink – Market Study

I, Ben Lansink, certify to the best of my knowledge and belief that:

 

This document is not an appraisal report, a technical review, or a consulting report, as defined by the Appraisal Institute of Canada. It is a Market Study, an analysis of Price facts pertaining to residential properties. This study does not estimate market value of a specific property, rather the percent diminution in Price, if any. Price is an historic fact, value is an opinion.

 

The statements of fact contained in this study are true and correct.

 

The reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are my personal impartial and unbiased professional analyses, opinions, and conclusions. No one provided professional analysis assistance to me.

 

I have no known bias and no present or prospective personal interest with respect to the issues that are the subject matter of this Case Study, or to the public who may receive this Study.

 

The writing of this Study was not contingent upon developing or reporting predetermined results, the amount of the Price diminution, or a conclusion favouring anyone.

 

My analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this Case Study has been prepared, in conformity with (1) the Canadian Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (CUSPAP), Appraisal Institute of Canada; (2) the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP), Appraisal Standards Board, United States; and (3) the International Valuation Standards (IVS).

 

I have the knowledge and experience to complete this Study competently.

 

The Appraisal Institute of Canada has a Continuing Professional Development Program. As of January 2014, I have fulfilled the requirements of this Program. I am a member in good standing of the Appraisal Institute of Canada.

 

Should any evident errors or omissions or additional undisclosed or unavailable facts become known, I reserve the right to revise this Study and its findings.

 

Respectfully submitted,

Ben Lansink, AACI, P.App, MRICS     Date: January 2014

Lansink Appraisals and Consulting

Telephone: 519-645-0750       Email: ben@lansink.ca

 

 

End of Study – Last Page

This is the last page of this study.

[1] The Appraisal of Real Estate, Second Canadian Edition, © 2002 Appraisal Institute of Canada, Page 14.13

[2] Expropriation Act, Revised Statutes of Ontario, 1990. c. E.26, s.23.

[3] http://www.mpac.ca/

[4] BEFORE: Photo by Lansink March 5, 2010